Dr Qunying Luo1, Dr Li Wen2, Dr Tim Cowan3, Dale Schilling1
1Hillridge Technology Pty Ltd, Sydney, Australia, 3NSW Department of Climate Change, Energy and Environment, Sydney, Australia, 3University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland
Biography:
Dr Qunying Luo has a PhD in Agroclimatology. She has extensive expertise in climate impact and adaptation research in economically important cropping industries. She secured several national competitive research projects from ARC, CRDC and GRDC. She authored 50 research papers. Dr Luo has a high level of skills and capacity in agricultural production system modelling, use and application of general circulation model-based climate information at seasonal and multi-decadal lead times. She is applying her expertise to crop insurance through the development of weather-based and crop yield-based insurance products to protect global farmers from the devastating impact of extreme weather events.
Abstract:
Extreme weather events (EWEs) such as frost, heat stress and terminal drought at reproductive stages are key risk factors in Australian cropping industries and can lead to significant economic losses. This study aimed to investigate the benefits of using a state-of-the-art seasonal climate forecast (SCF) system in managing such risks through contingent decision-making in the Australian wheat industry. Six locations in eastern Australia, three cultivars with varying maturities, and 17 times of sowing were considered. Seasonal hindcasts from the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator-Seasonal Version 2 (ACCESS-S2), initialized on the 1st of May for the period 1981-2018 were linked with the Agricultural Production System sIMulator (APSIM)-Wheat model (v7.10) to achieve the research aim. Research results showed that (1) ACCESS-S2 showed a more than 10% skill improvement in predicting the occurrence of EWEs and in predicting above/below long-term median wheat yield in most of the cases at a seasonal lead time; (2) 68% of cases had a yield gain using SCF information; (3) across all cases, there was an average yield gain of 281 kg/ha, representing an increase of 13%; and (4) the benefits of using SCF were seen across 69% of predicted wet years, 65% of predicted neutral years and 72% of predicted dry years. Overall, there is a demonstrated benefit in utilizing ACCESS-S2 forecasts in the Australian wheat industry through improved decision-making in managing EWEs. Such a benefit can occur in any climate-year pattern but with dry years being more likely and significant.