Preparing rural communities for the future: spatio-temporal optimisation of rotation sequences.

Ms Karin Schiller1, Professor Marcus Randall1, Dr. James Montgomery2, Dr. Andrew Lewis3

1Bond Business School, Bond University, 2School of Information and Communication Technology, University of Tasmania, , 3Institute for Integrated and Intelligent Systems, Griffith University

Biography:

Karin has a B. Rural Science, UNE; Certificate Project Management, UNE; Graduate Certificate International Studies, University Queensland; Master of Professional Accounting, Southern Cross University, and is currently completing her PhD, Business, Bond University. 30yrs commercial experience in diverse roles domestically and overseas, equips her with insights from other sectors for agricultural application. Key primary industry roles held: Project Manager, Special One Research Company, Walgett, responsible for the GRDC funded NSW Western Farming System Project; Executive Officer Clarence River Professional Fishermen’s Association; CEO, Queensland Seafood Industry Association; CEO, Australian Institute of Agricultural Science and Technology (now the Ag Institute).

Abstract:

Larger production planning horizons are needed to identify future farm production capacity influenced by climatic changes, providing agribusinesses insight to supply chain security, governments information for long-range regional planning, and industry identification of research priorities assisting with restructuring and futureproofing. This multi-disciplinary research is a case study of the Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area, investigating optimisation of food and fibre through Ecological Intensification of Agriculture (EIA). Five irrigated agricultural production systems are investigated, revealing the combinatorial effect on species selection, driven by current agronomic decisions impact on future outcomes. The approach modifies a robust temporal metaheuristic multi-objective evolutionary optimisation algorithm, creating spatio-temporal optimising rotation sequences (STORS). Achieved by incorporating a land use evaluation tool complimented by agronomic production rules to assign feasible cropping sequences to land management units (LMU) influenced by climatic conditions. It is hypothesised the STORS framework will generate outputs of crop assignment to LMUs in the case study area that will maximise regional agricultural net revenue whilst concurrently satisfying environmental deficit waterflow targets. The research seeks to answer the question: Will the case region experience a transformation over time in crop options to achieve the research problem’s two objectives? Or, which crops, on what land, maximise farm net revenue (feeding the nation) whilst (minimising environmental waterflow deficit) protecting the environment. Outputs will reflect the impact of current best practice farming activities on future production at a regional scale, elucidating feasible shifts in agricultural enterprises, visioning a future which facilitates back casting to identify pathways of adaptation, offering timely preparedness.